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(Inside Lacrosse Photo: Evan Volkman) |
Not much can be taken from a rematch three years in the making, right? At most, a quarter of each team’s roster was on the field in the 2022. But that the same time, some trends linger, and I’m fascinated, so I looked back at the “Why Maryland Won” analysis piece after the Terps’ 9-7 win over Cornell at Rentschler Field.
The first line was, “Maryland won the 2022 NCAA Championship because they’re a historically great team.”
But one thing stuck out more acutely: “[The Terps won because] the game is 60 minutes, not 63 or 65 or 67.
Maryland coach John Tillman acknowledged postgame that his team ran out of gas, and they were fortunate the game ended when it did. Cornell scored five-straight goals to turn a 9-2 third quarter deficit into a two-goal final margin.
My takeaway is that Cornell gave Maryland a close game, one of two two-goal wins coach John Tillman’s team withstood that season. It was the culmination of Connor Buczek’s first campaign as head coach, and CJ Kirst, Michael Long, Hugh Kelleher, Ryan Sheehan, Andrew Dalton, Christopher Davis, Michael Bozzi and Jayson Singer all made plays in that game, have been working for four years to get back to the mountaintop. Now they’re here, ready to apply those hard-learned lessons.
But much more can be gleaned from what’s happened more recently, including on Saturday, so let’s dive into five questions that will determine how Monday’s NCAA Championship Game is likely to unfold.
1. Will Tim O’Branski Out-Scheme Jack Cascadden?
In breaking down Maryland’s 14-8 NCAA Semifinal win over Syracuse, the Terps’ 14-of-24 performance at the face-off X is the starting point. To hold All-American John Mullen to 45%, his third-worst outing of the season is notable, but I was even more supposed and impressed by the fact that Maryland pivoted a bit from what had been their go-to plan, finding more success with senior Shea Keethler (9-of-12) than freshman Jonah Carrier (5-of-11).
Coming into Saturday, Keethler had taken 160 of Maryland’s 359 face-offs (44% of their total draws). But the number had slipped in May; he’d taken 31 of 90 (34.4%). Whether it was the influence of the regular season game (he won 7-of-13; Sean Creter, who has since been injured, won nine and Carrier didn’t take a draw) or something else that showed up on film, the pendulum swung back to Keethler on Saturday.
“[Assistant] Tim O'Branski does a great job with those guys. Our face-off guys and wings were awesome today. Johnny Mullen is elite, he is awesome; just put on the Harvard film. He is excellent,” Tillman said postgame. “I thought Shea Keethler did a tremendous job. … Didn't have a great week last week and stepped up. Obviously, that goes a long way. … Again, Coach O'Branski, great plan this week.”
Cornell’s Jack Cascadden is another All-American matchup for the Terps to contend with on Monday. He comes in having taken 444 face-offs, winning 62% of them and perhaps more importantly, scoring 10 goals, including one on Saturday in the Big Red’s two-goal win over Penn State. He’s athletic and doesn’t just win possessions for a Cornell offensive that comes in with an eight point raw efficiency gap over the Terps (37.6% vs. 29.5%), he adds scoring depth — particularly important if that offense falters for whatever reason.
Which brings us to our next point.
2. How Productive Will CJ Kirst Be?
Kirst was held scoreless for the first time in his 66-game career on Saturday. Watching him move, it seems reasonable to conclude he’s nursing an injury.
The Big Red scored seven goals on 36 possessions, 7% below their season average. Starters Kirst, Dalton, Ryan Goldstein and Willem Firth combined for just two goals and an assist. The Big Red overcome the unusually paltry performance from two-thirds of their knowns by getting five goals and four assists from Long and Kelleher, two goals and an assist from the second midfield line and a goal and an assist from defenseman Brendan Staub, in addition to Cascadden’s goal.
It’s reasonable to expect Maryland to cut off Cornell’s transition attempts and limit Kelleher. Here’s what my colleague Dan Kaplan said in reaction to watching the Penn State game: “Cornell leaned a lot on transition that I think UMD denies. The goal that pole skips to pipe on the Goldstein sneak is a really unique sub pattern. Staub lines up on defense then, when the first person through midline comes, he releases instead of having to wait for a defender to get to box and get an O guy on. I think Kelleher is potentially the X-factor. He’s a physical matchup that, if he can lean and get downhill, is a game changer. Penn State approached him high, which gave him runways to get momentum before a touch. I think Maryland will crowd him to make it tougher for him to get going.”
If the Terps limit Kelleher and transition, it will be incumbent on Kirst, Goldstein, Dalton and Firth to pick up more scoring slack.
3. How Will Maryland’s Defense Adjust to Kirst’s Threat?
I expect first-team All-American Will Schaller to guard Kirst. Schaller would’ve had my Schmeisser Award vote not just for his ability to guard the ball but because of how he supports in seven-man defense and the hockey plays he makes — nuggets, gooses, taking body in scrums and carrying out of traffic. In that way, it shapes up as an incredible matchup because Kirst does all those types of things too (note his 10-groundball, three-caused turnover game vs. Richmond in the Quarterfinals).
But if Kirst is limited, would it be reasonable to switch Schaller onto Goldstein or Long? Would that better deploy his on-ball skill? Would it free him up to make more off-ball plays? Can Jackson Canfield or Colin Burlace hold up on Kirst?
4. Will the Terps Run?
Coming into the Syracuse game, perhaps the most compelling question was how the Terps would try to dictate tempo. That manifests in two ways — how much a team tries to convert early offense and how low they try to run down the shot clock on each possession.
My thought was that Tillman was faced with a binary: if he thought the Orange offense could have success, he could cut into his opponent’s raw efficiency advantage. While Syracuse ranked No. 7 vs. Maryland’s 22, the difference was only a 2.6%. That probably most illustrates how insanely efficient Cornell’s offense has been, given that the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 (VMI) is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 10 (UAlbany). The other side of the binary was “Is that playing into Syracuse’s hands? Pushing early offense can lead to a higher possession game, which favors the more efficient offense.
That binary was rendered moot as a result of their impressive face-off performance, but the Terps still chose to try to convert early offense; LSM AJ Larkin scored twice, LSM Jack McDonald and SSDMs Thomas Gravino and George Stamos each had an assist. On paper, Cornell has some of the same advantages the Syracuse had: they should be better than 50% facing off and their offense should score. Will Maryland try to offset those by converting unsettled offensive opportunities?
5. What of Maryland’s Settled Offense?
Eric Spanos was the star on Saturday, posting four goals and an assist. It was the fifth game this season that he’s produced four or more points, but only the second since March 8. He’s been incredible consistent, averaging exactly 3.00 points per game.
But the Terps’ MO has been to rotate its biggest contributors. Against Georgetown, it was Braden Erksa (3G, 1A). In the Big Ten semifinal win, it was Daniel Kelly (5G). In the regular season finale vs. Hopkins, it was Erksa (4G, 1A). In the win over Ohio State the week prior to that, it was Bryce Ford (3G, 1A) and Matthew Keegan (3G).
The whack-a-mole nature of who scores the goal is the entire ethos of Tillman’s best teams — unselfishness, not caring who scores the goal. The foundation of his approach to lacrosse is shot selection. The offense is designed to create good shots without caring who takes them and, if you’re the player in the position to take a good shot, not taking that shot is as bad as taking a bad shot.
That whack-a-mole nature is also what makes it so difficult for opposing defenses to prepare and decide on matchups. I expect Jayson Singer, who guarded Matt Traynor on Saturday, to draw the Spanos matchup because of the size and strength components. That likely means Staub will guard Erksa and Matt Dooley will be on Kelly.
Zach Whittier is tied with Spanos for the most assists on the team with 17. If Cornell prioritizes limiting his playmaking, does that mean putting the pole on him to discourage his dodging? How does that manifest in Keegan and Ford, who are a good combination of stepdown shooters who can dodge approaches, being guarded by shortsticks? And the second midfield — Jack Schultz, Elijah Stobaugh and Aidan Aitken — seemed to run a bit more than usual on Saturday. Was that a function of game flow, an attempt to limit the exertion of the first midfield, increased trust in the younger group or all of the above? And how does their considerably different athletic profile from the first line affect defensive coordinator Jordan Stevens’ approach?
6. The Question That Doesn’t Need to Be Asked: What to Expect from Logan McNaney?
He’s a former Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament and made 14 saves (67%) vs. the Orange on Saturday. We (and the Big Red) know what we’re going to get about McNaney.
Despite the 1,600 words written above, lacrosse does not need to be a complicated game: who’s going to get more possessions, and who’s going to convert those into goals?
No player on the field has a greater say in answering that question than the goalie, so this may come down to “What kind of day is Cornell goalie Wyatt Knust going to have?”
Enjoy the game. It’s 247 days until the next college lacrosse game.
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